Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Friday, October 24, 2008
Living in the moment......
October is always wild. Football. Appraisals. School. More football. Halloween parties. Birthdays. More football. This year has been no different.
But we've had a lot of fun this month, and its not even over yet. Mike's parents visited for a weekend, and its always great to see them. Mike was gone for four days on a business trip, and returned just in time for he and I to take off for three days for my birthday. (The new Tulalip Resort is a great place!!) Both boys have played a ton of football, and Grant was a big part of a big win last night against their biggest rival, Willapa Valley. (20-0!!!) They will both transition into wrestling in the next few weeks, which is a slower pace for all of us and will be a welcome downshift.
And surprisingly enough, I continue to be buried in appraisal work. I'm grateful to be seeing continued success, despite the worsening economic conditions. With the election now just a short distance away, I'm not even going to fathom a guess at what is to come. I have my own opinions, but will keep them to myself at this point.
Tomorrow night, I'm throwing a big bash here at the house for 20 or so of my nearest and dearest friends. It promises to get a little rowdy, and I'm looking forward to laughing a lot, and enjoying a rare chance to catch up with everyone.
Happy Fall!!!
Thursday, October 09, 2008
Wednesday, October 08, 2008
I have been humbled today
Today, my oldest dear aunt is having surgery for a very serious medical issue--an issue that could shorten her life tremendously.
To me, she has always been "my crazy aunt." She is a mother of six, and the youngest is a few years older than me. As a young child, my home was typically quiet, respectful, clean, orderly, and we were expected to follow the rules. Aunt Betty and Uncle Clyde's house was chaotic and loud, with what seemed like a gazillion noisy kids and pets constantly coming and going. They had cats with funny names, like "Daisy Mae Lulubopper" and "Miranda." And my aunt "collected" chiquita banana stickers on the insides of her cabinet doors. Her older children always seemed to be moving from home to college or somewhere else, but there always seemed to be furniture in a truck parked somewhere nearby. When I was still quite young, she moved to a little place in the middle of nowhere "to grow herbs." And she ran for some political office once. I remember seeing signs with her name on them, and she was in a parade...........big things to this little girl.
In any case, I haven't "had time" yet to send my Aunt Betty a card since her diagnosis. My intentions have been good, but the follow-through hasn't been there. My excuse is that I've been too busy, running kids here and there and working.
Today, I went to my mailbox and, lo and behold...........there is a birthday card for me from my Aunt Betty. More than a week early, and filled with her usual humor. Not a single mention of the surgery she faced today. I would imagine she sent it early, not sure if she would feel well enough next week to get it done. But I have been too busy to make a thoughtful gesture?
And, so I have been humbled by a wonderful and thoughtful lady. I will be getting that card in the mail, letting her know I'm thinking of her, too.
Monday, October 06, 2008
Who knew we needed a crash helmet to watch the news?
Turning on the news these days is a scary event. Regardless of what you choose to watch, if you change the channel enough times, you can hear predictions that are completely opposite. For every well-reputed speaker declaring doom and gloom, there are just as many well-reputed speakers stating that, "Its all up from here, folks!" It's enough to drive the sane to......well......insanity.
Some people tend to think that appraisers have a special knowledge. Like we can crunch a bunch of numbers, sprinkle them with some pixie dust, and KNOW what your house will be worth six months from now. While I rather like the thought of being gifted with a crystal ball, or Yoda-like powers, appraisers base everything on historical analysis. Sometimes that historical event occurred 5 years ago, sometimes 1 year ago, and sometimes only yesterday, but it has always already occurred. Hence, it is historical. Do we sometimes utilize that historical analysis to "predict" values? Yes.......but only very rarely in something called a "prospective value," and it is full of risks..........which is why it is so rarely done.
Ninety-nine percent of an appraiser's job is determining a current market value based upon sales of similar properties that have already occurred, known factual data of what it costs to build the same property, and/or lease a similar property. When the market is stable, its not such a tough job--check your data and statistics regularly, and work away. But when there are numerous external influences to value that are changing rapidly.......it gets a whole bunch tougher. What happens when someone's down payment goes "poof" in the stock market? What happens when someone relies on income from an annuity to make their house payment, and all the sudden that annuity is worth 50% of what it was worth last month? These things ARE happening in a lightning-fast manner.
So.......I'm donning my crash helmet and forging ahead. This might just be a bump in the rollercoaster ride, or it might be a plunge to the bottom. Until my crystal ball shows up, I'm just going to keep analyzing the data as fast as it arrives. And bracing myself every time I turn on the news.